Rime Ice or Hoar Frost

February 26, 2010

in Patricia Vollmer @ 9:21 am by wwx

This blog post appeared in the author’s Ground Control to Major Mom blog on January 16, 2010.

Greetings from Norway, I mean, Nebraska!

On the night of January 14th, after a couple days of melting ice and cold nights, and after a weak cold front moved through, saturated air near the surface brought foggy conditions to our neighborhood. The next morning, I saw our trees covered in heavy frost.

From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?

Pretty isn’t it?

Upon a closer look…

From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?

…I noticed the ice was forming into long needles, all oriented in one direction.

I had to trudge through knee-deep drifts that we still had in our front yard to get these pictures, but they’re definitely worth it.

My first thought was that this is rime icing, or rime-type frost. Defined in Wikipedia as “a type of frost that occurs quickly, often under conditions of heavily saturated air and windy conditions. Ships traveling through Arctic seas may accumulate rime on the rigging. Unlike hoar frost, which has a feathery appearance, rime generally has an icy solid appearance. In contrast to the formation of hoar frost, in which the water vapor condenses slowly and directly into icy feathers, Rime typically goes through a liquid phase where the surface is wet by condensation before freezing.”

The temperature range was right for rime ice, as were the saturation conditions and winds, which drive the direction of ice formation.

But Dave told me there were discussions as to whether this was a phenomena called “hoar frost”.

No, not “whore frost”. I don’t even want to go there.

Might this be “hoarfrost” or “hoar frost”, which is also mentioned in that Wikipedia link above? When hoar frost conditions have a slight breeze they can orient their formation in one particular direction. But according to the definition and pictures here, I’m less inclined to think so.

I think what we have is actually “soft rime”. What I saw and experienced fit all of these definitions, the thin, milky white needles, and the ease with which is fell off the trees in the slightest breeze.

The winds were from a northerly direction overnight, if there was a wind at all. So according to the definition, the needles should be pointing towards the north, and indeed they were.

So I think this is “soft rime”, but take a look at these other pictures and see what you think:

From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?
From 2010 01 15 Rime Ice or Hoar Frost?

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About Patricia

Patricia is a native of Norfolk, VA, and graduated with a B.S. in Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University in 1995, and a M.S. in Meteorology from the Air Force Institute of Technology in 2002.  Patricia has served for 15 years so far as a weather officer in the U.S. Air Force.  After 10 years of active duty, having served in such locations as Bosnia and Korea, Patricia became an AF Reservist to spend more time as a stay-home Mom to her two sons, who are now 7 and 5 years old.  She currently serves part-time on the U.S. Strategic Command weather support team, providing worldwide weather awareness and guidance for the command’s needs.  Patricia has a blog, Ground Control to Major Mom, which covers a variety of topics from parenthood to weather to current events.  Patricia’s passion is with remote sensing and she had the opportunity to explore GPS-derived water vapor assimilation into the MM5 weather model as her Master’s degree research.

vollmerdp@gmail.com

http://www.twitter.com/vollmerdp

http://vollmerdp.blogspot.com

2 Comments

Keeping Busy

February 25, 2010

in Jacob Hamblin @ 9:48 am by wwx

How to keep busy during the job hunt?  How do you stay on top of the latest techniques without losing what you learned in school or while with your past employer?

In today’s harsh economic climate, it is easy to let go of what you’ve learned when you are laid off or looking for work.  Everyone has days where he thinks about if he made the right career decision or not.  I have even thought about whether or not I should just give up in the meteorology field.  While returning to further your education, if you have the ability, may not be a bad idea, you shouldn’t give up on your career aspirations because it’s hard to find a job.

You should use this time searching for jobs as motivation to broaden your education and continue using what you learned back in college.  It may be hard to balance your time between job hunting, working a temporary job, and continuing your meteorology education, but it is something that is necessary to stay at the top of your game.  When you do receive that interview, you’ll want to nail it!

I personally use books and online tools to further educate myself on new forecasting techniques.  A great website to do this is at COMET Modules.  They will even send you scores on courses you complete free of charge.  Another way I keep up on my forecasting techniques is by forecasting through my twitter account, @hamblinj.  While I don’t know how many people use my forecast, I do know it keeps me from straying too far from the science.  In summary, try and find ways to further your education while job hunting, it will make you more appealing in the long run.

Questions/Comments?  Shoot me an e-mail at hamblinj@gmail.com

Sincerely,
Jacob Hamblin
hamblinj@gmail.com
www.linkedin.com/in/hamblinj

1 Comment

Geographic Information Systems and Meteorology

February 23, 2010

in Chuck Schoeneberger @ 2:53 pm by wwx

In Meteorology we use models all the time.  We use the NAM, GFS/GFSx, RUC and others on a daily basis.  We know they are gridded models with multiple levels (e.g. 60 vertical levels for the NAM) and a larger grid resolution (e.g. 12km for the NAM).  We compute multiple equations at each level for each grid point to use the output as part of our daily analyses.  What comes out of each model on most days is a decent conceptual model of the atmosphere.

The atmosphere is only one part of a conceptualized real world.  The world is made up of other features which can be related to the atmospheric models and other real time data.  This is where Geographic Information Systems (GIS) come in.  GIS relates real world features in either vector (e.g. points, lines, polygons) or grid form with a geospatial database on the back end.  These features can be combined with weather data converted into the same form to provide real time and archived analyses.  The sky is the limit for how diverse studies or real time applications you want to do.

GIS is in the middle of a transition from the mostly static desktop to dynamic server realm.  It started out as a faster way to produce paper maps and is transitioning to server applications serve out real time relevant data to people who request it.  The power is with the power of geoprocessing and map algebra in GIS.  Geoprocessing allows you to run scripts manually or automatically to manipulate different data sets together through map algebra, and in a specific order to get your final analysis.  This can then be sent out to clients to help them in their decision making processes.

Let’s consider a flooding example.  With spring coming, rivers will be rising.  Every River Forecast Center across the country will be making forecasts about expected river crests.  The expected forecast crests are then sent to Emergency Managers who can then use GIS to get a rough estimate about damages from the flooding based on house location and height of the ground (e.g. using Digital Elevation Models, DEMs).and how to use their resources for flood protection for the general public.  A real world example of this is the Flood Forecast Display for the Fargo, North Dakota/Moorhead, Minnesota region along the Red River of the North.

The National Weather Service (NWS) offers both static and live dynamic GIS data, much of it for no cost.  You can convert most static data or data streams which are not shown at the NWS site into useful GIS formats for analysis with non-meteorology data.  The NWS also offers a converter for National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) to convert GRIB2 data into useable GIS formats, either through a standalone application (tkdegrib.exe), or with automatic scripting (degrib.exe).

Current solutions from ESRI with their ArcGIS Desktop and ArcGIS Server applications are the easiest to configure and develop applications and solutions.  There are also open source versions of GIS, like Mapserver which is similar to ArcGIS Server to serve data.  They work well but often have a higher learning and configuration curve.  The forecast suite F5Data also utilizes a GIS engine to show current and model variables.

Geospatial technology through GIS is the technology of the future in relating the effects of weather to the public and private industry.  It will continue to progress to almost real time relation of the weather to the world so people can remain safe with ever changing conditions.

Links:

Flood Forecast Display Tool:

http://ffdt.rrbdin.org/

National Weather Service GIS Data Portal:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/gis/

National Weather Service NDFD GRIB2 Decoder:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/degrib/

F5Data:

http://www.f5data.com/

©2010 Charles Schoeneberger

About Chuck

Chuck has a background in Atmospheric Sciences and a degree from the University of North Dakota, Grand Forks. He has a background in operational forecasting producing products for transportation needs with the 511 system and Departments of Transportation in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana with Meridian Environmental Technology Inc. of Grand Forks, ND.  He is looking for new job opportunities in the operational forecasting realm, and he blogs for the Minneapolis StarTribune newspaper about statewide weather.  In addition, Chuck has a background in Geographic Information Systems and is also looking for ways to apply these skills towards weather outreach and communications.    He is a native of Minnesota, just outside the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area and enjoys all four seasons and the constantly changing conditions.

Minneapolis StarTribune Weather Watchers Blog:

http://www.startribune.com/weatherwatchers/chuckschoeneberger.html

University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, Atmospheric Sciences Department:

http://www.atmos.und.edu/Default.aspx

National Weather Service Warning Decision Training Branch:

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/

COMET at UCAR:

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/

Twin Cities Chapter of the American Meteorological Society:

http://twincitiesams.org/

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Beautiful Dendrites

February 22, 2010

in Patricia Vollmer @ 10:02 am by wwx

This blog post appeared in the author’s Ground Control to Major Mom blog on January 8, 2010.

A billion years ago, in one of my meteorology classes, I was taught the temperature ranges at which snowflakes will form their different potential shapes. I remember getting tested on the information, too.

“At what temperature ranges will capped columns form?”

Heck if I know now, but I can now find out with the click of a button….

This is from Wikipedia’s entry on snow:

“The shape of the snowflake is determined broadly by the temperature and humidity at which it is formed.[12] The most common snow particles are visibly irregular. Planar crystals (thin and flat) grow in air between 0 °C (32 °F) and −3 °C (27 °F). Between −3 °C (27 °F) and −8 °C (18 °F), the crystals will form needles or hollow columns or prisms (long thin pencil-like shapes). From −8 °C (18 °F) to −22 °C (−8 °F) the shape reverts back to plate-like, often with branched or dendritic features. At temperatures below −22 °C (−8 °F), the crystal development becomes column-like, although many more complex growth patterns also form such as side-planes, bullet-rosettes and also planar types depending on the conditions and ice nuclei.[15][16][17] If a crystal has started forming in a column growth regime, at around −5 °C (23 °F), and then falls into the warmer plate-like regime, then plate or dendritic crystals sprout at the end of the column, producing so called “capped columns.”[12]”

I found this description of this specific kind of dendrite from CalTech:

“Fernlike Stellar Dendrites. Sometimes the branches of stellar crystals have so many sidebranches they look a bit like ferns, so we call them fernlike stellar dendrites. These are the largest snow crystals, often falling to earth with diameters of 5 mm or more. In spite of their large size, these are single crystals of ice — the water molecules are lined up from one end to the other. Some snowfalls contain almost nothing but stellar dendrites and fernlike stellar dendrites. It can make quite a sight when they collect in vast numbers, covering everything in sight. The best powder snow, where you sink to your knees while skiing, is made of stellar dendrites. These crystals can be extremely thin and light, so they make a low density snowpack.”

Oh…I just found this picture that seems to sum it up pretty well:

Anyway, here are some pictures I took on January 8th from when the temperature was around 0F, and these are some of the prettiest dendrites I’ve seen with my own eyes (rather than in a book). I’m posting these pics nice and large so you can see the elaborate detail. Isn’t science beautiful?

About Patricia

Patricia is a native of Norfolk, VA, and graduated with a B.S. in Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University in 1995, and a M.S. in Meteorology from the Air Force Institute of Technology in 2002.  Patricia has served for 15 years so far as a weather officer in the U.S. Air Force.  After 10 years of active duty, having served in such locations as Bosnia and Korea, Patricia became a reservist to stay home with her two sons, who are now 7 and 5 years old.  She currently serves part-time on the U.S. Strategic Command weather support team, providing worldwide weather awareness and guidance for the command’s needs.  Patricia has a blog, Ground Control to Major Mom, which covers a variety of topics from parenthood to weather to current events.  Patricia’s passion is with remote sensing and she had the opportunity to explore GPS-derived water vapor assimilation into the MM5 weather model as her Master’s degree research.

vollmerdp@gmail.com

http://www.twitter.com/vollmerdp

http://vollmerdp.blogspot.com

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The Enigma Outbreak

February 19, 2010

in Bill Murray @ 10:51 am by wwx

The U.S. Army Signal Corps was in charge of collecting weather observations and producing storm warnings in 1884. The weather map from the morning of Tuesday, February 19th that year showed low pressure over northern Illinois. Temperatures over the lower Mississippi Valley were in the 60s that morning. From North Alabama into North Carolina, temperatures were in the 40s and 50s.

Official weather forecasts for the Gulf States called for “local rains” with winds shifting from southerly to westerly and then northerly. For the South Atlantic, “slightly warmer fair weather” was called for, with winds shifting to westerly and a generally lower barometer. There was no indication of what the day would portend.

The first tornadoes of the day touched down in Mississippi during the late morning, near Louisville and Columbus, passing into Alabama north of Carrollton. A deadly tornado touched down near Oxmoor at 1:20 p.m. This tornado roared northeast toward the new industrial town of Leeds, southeast of Birmingham. The tornado was deadliest there, killing thirteen people and sweeping away many homes.

About 2:30 p.m., what was likely an F4 tornado roared from the sky near Jacksonville in East Alabama. This would be the deadliest tornado of a very deadly day. Ten people were killed at Germania (now Piedmont). Fourteen people died at Goshen. The school at Goshen was “blown to atoms” killing the schoolmaster and injuring many of the children. The tornado killed thirty people along its thirty-five mile path into Georgia. Georgia was especially hard hit. In fact, the day is still one of Georgia’s biggest tornado disasters, with at least 69 fatalities from at least seventeen significant tornadoes.

The rampage would continue into the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours. One of the deadliest tornadoes of the outbreak killed at least fifteen people around the community of Philadelphia, North Carolina.

The outbreak is known as the “Enigma Outbreak”, so called because the true death toll is an enigma. Because the storms struck mainly across the rural South, newspaper reports and records are scarce. Official Signal Corps record indicated 182 fatalities. When Tom Grazulis’ Tornado Project researched the event, they set the final death toll at 178. Over the years, estimates have ranged as high as 2,000, since it is believed that many of the fatalities who were poor African-Americans were not counted in the rural South. The number of tornadoes is also uncertain, but Grazulis counted at least thirty-seven “significant,” F2 or higher rated tornadoes.

About Bill

Bill Murray is a forecaster for AlabamaWX.com, the official weather blog at Alabama’s ABC33/40. Get a daily dose of his weather history at www.twitter.com/wxhistorian. He is also one of the hosts at WeatherBrains, the weekly netcast that’s all about weather. Listen at www.WeatherBrains.com or subscribe through the iTunes Music Store. It’s free!

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Weather Misunderstandings

February 18, 2010

in From Whatever-Weather @ 11:41 am by wwx

Last week, Richard’s blog entry was about popular weather myths.  My entry this week will be along the same lines, but more focused on what I prefer to call “misunderstandings.”  These are things that people think they know based on the limited information presented in news stories.  The popular media often take information out of context or ask questions about the weather without providing clear answers.  That leaves the reader/viewer/listener to draw his own conclusions.  Often these conclusions are misguided.  So today, I’ll take a look at a few of the more popular ones.

There are more tornadoes than ever these days.

This one is simply not true.  While there may be more reports of tornadoes and more news coverage of tornadoes, the number of tornadoes that occur varies from year to year.  One year it’s up, and the next it’s down.  Take 2008 for example.  We had 1691 tornadoes according to the Storm Prediction Center’s US Tornado Statistics table.  That was a very busy year for meteorologists who cover severe storms.  In 2009, the numbers were far fewer with a preliminary total of 1158.  Now some people blame Vortex 2 for the lesser number of tornadoes in 2009, but most of us aren’t really that superstitious.

One reason that there may seem to be more tornadoes is that there are more people out there to spot them.  We have more trained Skywarn spotters than ever before.  We have more chasers than ever before.  Add that to the fact that many areas of the country that had been very sparsely populated have more people living or vacationing in them, and you get more reports.  Is it really right to think that if there is no one to see the tornado that it didn’t exist?  Not really.

Tornadoes don’t cross rivers or bodies of water or hit mountains or downtown areas or pine meadows.

This misunderstanding can’t be farther from the truth.  Tornadoes can literally happen anywhere.  Mother Nature doesn’t see geographical borders the way humans do.  During my time in the Twin Cities, I witnessed (on radar) many a tornado cross streams, lakes, and the St. Croix River.  In recent years, we have seen tornadoes hit the Catskill Mountains, downtown Atlanta, and all sorts of meadows across the country.  There is no place in the continental US that is truly safe from the possibility of a tornado touching down.  Even Coastal Southern California has seen one this year.

On the same page as the SPC’s table of tornado statistics, you will find maps of Annual Severe Weather Summary reports for recent years.  While it is obvious, that fewer twisters are reported in the Rocky Mountains and across the desert Southwest, they still occur in those places.  Again, I would also point out that those regions are two of the most sparsely populated in the country.

Hurricanes are getting stronger.

While I can see why some people might draw this conclusion, I can easily dismiss it.  It might be true that hurricanes are doing more damage than they did 100 years ago, but to say they are getting stronger is not quite right.  First off, the technology that we have to see and measure the hurricanes had barely been conceived a century ago.  How can we compare what we know about hurricanes today to what happened back then?  Before satellites and radar, the only way we knew a hurricane was in the middle of the Atlantic was if ships reported them to the mainland.

Why are they doing more damage now?  We have more people living on the coast now.  We have more, and more expensive, buildings on the coasts and barrier islands than ever before.  What used to be small fishing villages are now beach resort towns.  Resorts are not cheap to build – and rebuild for that matter.  So a community suffering a direct hit from a category 3 hurricane 100 years ago would have a different monetary damage report than it would now.  You can see why it is easy for more recent hurricanes to be reported as the most costly in history.  That fact doesn’t mean that they are any stronger now than they were 100, 200, 500, or 1000 years ago.

Normal temperatures are what the high and low temperatures should be.

What meteorologists often refer to as normal temps are actually the 30 year average for the recorded high and low temperatures for each day.  The key word here is “average.”  That means that in one year, the high temperature for a specific day might be 50 degrees Fahrenheit.  A few years later, that day may have a recorded high of 75, and even later, it might be 41.  If you look at the recorded high temperatures on that same day over the course of 30 years and take the average, you might get 54 degrees.  So for the sake of simplicity, meteorologists tend to call that average “normal.”  The general public often mistakes the word “normal” for “what it should be.”  While I might complain that here in Raleigh, we have been well below normal for the last several weeks, I do not mean that our temperatures in the middle of winter should not be this cold.  I just mean that I am wishing that it were not this cold.

Hopefully, these points have cleared up some of the misunderstandings out there about our weather.  I hope that you, the reader, can look at what is reported on the news in a 5 second sound bite with a more critical perspective.  Please don’t just accept what is reported or editorialized by the evening news anchor as fact.  Take a moment to think about it critically and consider some of the ideas presented here and elsewhere.

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Weather Myths

February 12, 2010

Back in high school we were tasked with completing a “Senior Project”.  This project was to be something that interested us and involved a research paper, hands on experience, and a presentation.  I of course chose to shadow a local TV meteorologist, but my research paper that I wrote dealt with “Weather Myths”.  I have taken pieces of that paper and integrated some “new” weather knowledge that I have attained over the past 6 years to address this common folklore…

Many weather myths are not explained in a scientific manner; however, they are based on events that occur constantly and appear to be generally valid.  Weather myths usually are contained within the following general categories: the condition of atmosphere, appearance of the sky, movement of clouds, direction and velocity of the wind, and animal behavior.  Before the invention of modern technology such as radar and satellites, meteorologists had to rely on theories such as weather beliefs and personal observations to make their forecasts.  Weather folklore originated long ago as civilizations made observations of weather conditions, noticed a pattern, and came up with a myth to accompany it.  Though many of these tales seem to be far fetched, many weather myths have been found to have true scientific support.

A myth common to the prediction of precipitation is “Red skies at morning, sailors take warning.  Red sky at night, sailors delight”.  This weather folklore has been around for many centuries.  The red sky myth was first used in a Greek philosopher’s rules for weather, written 300 years before Christ and has appeared in many sources of literature from the Bible to Shakespeare.  The extravagant colors one sees at sunset and sunrise are the yellow and orange light rays because they are not scattered by the atmosphere as they are passing through, and the moisture and dust in the atmosphere causes the sky to appear red.  The explanation of the myth is that a dark red sky in the morning hours is a sign of clear skies to the east, thus the chances of another weather system arriving are decent.  Conversely, a red sky at night is a sign of clear and colorful skies to the west, and given that the western sky is clear it is assumed that a weather system will not approach for at least one more day.  This myth is especially consistent when referring to the weather on the east coast of the United States because the proverb is based on west-to-east movement of weather systems only in the mid-latitudes, and it does not apply to other parts of the globe.

Another very common myth used when predicting precipitation is the halo around the moon.  “Ring around the moon, rain by noon.  Ring around the sun, rain before night is done”.  Unlike the red sky myth, the ring around the moon means that precipitation is most likely on its way.  The ring around the moon is caused by high level cirrostratus clouds that contain ice crystals.  As the light from the moon shines down on earth, a halo of the sun or moon is caused by the refraction of light by crystals in cirrus clouds.   Upper level winds causes these high level cirrus clouds to move quickly ahead of an approaching system and can cause a halo around the moon.  These high level clouds now are easily seen in satellite images streaming ahead of major storm systems.  Often here in North Carolina, storms can be gathering in Texas, while the high cirrus clouds are reaching this area.  In fact, this past winter I personally noticed some brilliant halos around the moon on mostly clear nights, and usually we received precipitation within a day or two.

Another myth that is common to predicting America’s climate is Groundhog Day.  “If the ground hog sees its shadow on February 2nd, there will be 6 more weeks of winter.  If it does not see its shadow then there will be an early spring”.  Groundhog Day originated in Germany and still occurs in Pennsylvania because of the large numbers of Germans who settled there, following their migration to America.  Every February 2nd, the groundhog used in Pennsylvania, named Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from his hole amidst a circle of TV cameras waiting to see what the weather will be like in the future.  Groundhog Day is on February 2nd because February 2nd is midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox; so, technically, the groundhog is never completely wrong.  However, the accuracy of the groundhog as measured over the past 100 years is one of inaccuracy.  Scientifically, the backing behind the Groundhog Day myth is that when the sun shines brightly in winter, it does so in the midst of a very dry, cold, Arctic air mass-which would suggest prolonged wintry weather.  So in theory the myth could prove to be true, but as the records have shown, the groundhog is not accurate in predicting the future of the weather.  When it comes to its use in predicting the weather, Groundhog Day is all in fun.

In conjunction with the groundhog, many other animals are used as a source of weather prediction.  Animals use their instincts to recognize that the weather is changing and travel to a warmer or safer place.  For example, when birds fly south, it signals the coming of cooler weather; likewise, when they return, it is an indication of milder weather on the horizon.  Many animals such as squirrels and other mammals simply spend the fall days gathering food for a winter hibernation time.  So it is a good rule of thumb that when squirrels are gathering nuts and birds are squirming around gathering seeds and other food, it usually signals that winter is approaching soon.  Another very popular weather myth that concerns animals involves cows.  It is said that, “If cows lie down and refuse to go to pasture, you can expect a storm to blow up soon”.  This tale has been used for a long time by farmers and rural communities, and I have even noticed it driving around while at home for the summers.  The reason that this myth is assumed to be true is because “cows sense the moisture in the air and are making sure they have somewhere dry to lie down”.  Basic animal instincts, though they are nothing out of the ordinary to the way the animal lives, give humans a good sense of the type of weather that can be expected.

A force of nature which is the center of many weather myths is lightning.  Since the time of the Greeks, lightning has often been seen as a powerful force and it has been worshiped as a god by many civilizations.  Also, according to early civilizations, lightning was considered a weapon which the gods used to punish humans.  One of the most common myths that people hear as they grow up is, “Lightning never strikes the same place twice”.  This assumption could not be more wrong.  Lightning can and frequently does strike the same place twice.  For example, during just one thunderstorm, the Empire State Building can be struck by lightning numerous times.  Although the Empire State Building is tall, lightning can also strike other objects many times.  This completely false myth about lightning came about because lightning is so erratic and hard to predict that people assumed that it was impossible that it could strike the same place twice.  The world record for most lightning strikes to a human is seven, which again disproves the myth completely.

Over the centuries, these myths have been useful in predicting the weather.  Simply by paying attention to the surroundings and the atmosphere one can sometimes accurately foretell the weather for the next few days.  With the increase in modern technology, such as radar, satellites, and weather stations set up around the globe, weather myths are being quickly replaced with accepted scientific methods that are more consistently accurate.  While these myths can be applied to every day forecasting, simply paying attention to wind direction, barometric trends, and the presence or absence of thickening clouds are a much better indicator of future weather events.  Some myths, such as the red sky myth, have withstood the test of time and still remain true and very reliable when making a weather prediction.  Knowing and using these centuries old weather proverbs can be helpful for ordinary people who are trying to watch the skies, plan outdoor activities, or how to dress the next day.  Even in this age of modern technology, the myths about the weather can have a practical application every day.

Richard Barnhill

About Richard:  Richard is a native of Greenville, NC where he experienced firsthand the destruction of Hurricane Floyd, the storm that pretty much sealed his career choice.  He received his BS in Meteorology from North Carolina State University in 2008 and is currently working on a MA in Geography at East Carolina University.  In undergrad his research was concentrated using WRF output to develop an icing accumulation algorithm; however, in graduate school his work is concentrated on using the TRMM satellite to better understand the regional differences in convection at monsoon onset to determine the mechanisms of onset and improve its predictability.  He hopes one day to work in a field that tries to bridge the society and meteorology gap so that there is better communication between the two.  Go Red Sox!

rpbarnhi@gmail.com

http://personal.ecu.edu/rpb1119/Welcome.html

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Expanding Your Horizons

February 10, 2010

in From Whatever-Weather @ 8:30 am by wwx

Anyone who has ever been unemployed knows how difficult it can be.  Of course, it’s nice to be able to go to sleep when you want and wake up when you want, but there is more to being unemployed than sleeping.  For most, finding a new job is an obsession.  For a few it’s an annoyance, but it must be done.  No matter in which category you find yourself, there is one sure fire way to save your sanity and improve your resume at the same time.  Expand your horizons.

In a prior blog post, Chuck explained the importance of continuing to learn and improve your forecasting knowledge whether you are employed or not.  I am not planning to repeat those words to the wise.  Instead, my focus is on other ways to make yourself more attractive to employers.

One way is learn a new skill or improve an existing one.  For example, many meteorologists lack the ability to write creatively, or even engagingly.  Sure, you can write a forecast discussion, but can you take a topic and turn it into a conversational blog?  Writing is a skill that proves quite useful in the field of meteorology, especially if your writing skills are the kind that invites readers into the conversation.  Once you’ve found your hidden talent, turn it into a measurable, marketable aspect of your life.  For example, if you have a blog on blogspot.com, make it the best that you can.  Then, highlight it on your resume.  Even if the only readers are potential employers, you have done yourself a favor.

Another way to set yourself apart from the crowd is to volunteer.  Find something that you feel passionately about, seek out organizations that work for that cause, and offer them your time and talents.  The benefits are phenomenal.  It gives you a chance to get out of the house and take a break from staring at the computer screen.  The organization gets a helping hand from you.  You get the personal satisfaction of knowing that you are doing something for a greater good, and of course, volunteering looks good on a resume.  Show your future employer that you are an active member of the community and willing to help those in need.

In the process of doing these things, you will be expanding your professional and social networks with very little effort.  So consider taking a creative writing class, volunteering for a park clean-up, or just putting yourself out there in any way you can.  When you do, you are expanding your horizons and increasing the potential that you find a job that you might not have thought to look for while staring at that computer screen waiting for the job board to refresh.

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Skywarn Spotters Help Save Lives

February 5, 2010

in From Whatever-Weather @ 11:12 am by wwx

“Skywarn Spotters Help Save Lives” is the title of a news article I would love to see one day.  So far, I have not personally seen this one.  Skywarn spotters are the unsung heroes of the weather geek community.  While they are normally trained by meteorologists and by people with in depth knowledge of meteorology, spotters in many communities are just every day people with a love of the storms.

I have a special place in my heart for Skywarn because I was lucky enough to be a volunteer trainer for the Twin Cities Metro Skywarn during my time in Minnesota.  I truly enjoyed the experience.  Every community across the country handles Skywarn differently.  In some regions, spotters can only be emergency officials trained directly by the National Weather Service.  In other areas, the training can be done by volunteers like myself, who have received the training from the NWS and who have been deputized to go out and train others.  The volunteers I had the privilege of teaching ranged from children to first responders.

So what do Skywarn spotters learn?

They learn safety first.  Spotters are not chasers. There is a difference.  Normally spotters stay close to home in a fixed location where they have a clear view of the coming storm.  Spotters are taught the basic parts of a thunderstorm, where the hail would most likely fall, where the tornado would likely be located if there is one, and which side of the storm is the safest to be when spotting.  They are also taught to be aware of the environment on all sides of them, again for safety’s sake.  Spotters don’t want to stand under power poles or trees, or drive into a flooded roadway, or be situated in the direct path of the storm.  Safety is the most important thing they learn before they learn how to make a report.

Although it may vary a bit from region to region, spotters make reports to one specific controlled location.  That information is then passed on to the local NWS office (if Control is not located in the office) and pertinent emergency officials.  Spotters are typically asked to report if there is hail, the measured size of the hailstones (NO guessing, please!), rotating wall clouds, measured wind speeds, wind damage, and of course, the rare tornado.  Other information may be requested by Control, but that varies from region to region and storm to storm.

Why are spotters so important?

Well-trained Skywarn spotters can make the difference in whether or not the warning systems are activated.  Meteorologists can only tell so much from their radars.  We can see that the ingredients are there for hail or tornadoes, but unless there are reports from the storm’s location, any warnings are based on Doppler indications.  In my experience as a broadcast meteorologist, people don’t take “Doppler indicated” warnings as seriously as warnings based on Skywarn spotters’ reports.  It is an unfortunate, but true fact.  That is why our spotters play such an important role.  Another reason is that sometimes the storm doesn’t appear to have the ingredients for severity on radar.  A trained spotter watching the storm can make all the difference if he sees that storm spin up a tornado.  This scenario happens on occasion.  The warning is based solely on spotters in the field and the warning saves lives.

Meteorology is still a young science, and is far from perfect.  Weather is something that affects everyone and is observed by everyone.  So why not ask those who are more interested and passionate about it than others to help us meteorologists get the information needed to protect lives and property.  That is exactly what Skywarn spotters do.  I thank all of them for their service.

For more information on Skywarn please visit the SKYWARN National Home Page or check with your local National Weather Service office.

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Situational Awareness in the Job Transition

February 2, 2010

in Chuck Schoeneberger @ 11:10 am by wwx

When you work in operational forecasting, Situational Awareness is crucial for your day-to-day work.  Individual Situational Awareness is the ability to be aware of your current surroundings and still be able to see the big picture and not get caught up in details and loose the bigger picture.

This concept has been applied to many professions, and the National Weather Service (NWS) considers it so important that they have made it part of their core operational forecaster training.  It is offered free online through the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) as part of the Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC), requirement IC 2, broken up into four parts and viewable on any internet browser with flash installed.  Look for the link at the bottom of this article for more details.

Now, how does Situational Awareness help with day-to-day life and a job search?  When you are tracking a storm and are involved in creating detailed forecasts, you bounce between different scales of the outside conditions.  We also collaborate with fellow forecasters in the operations room on what we see as each event unfolds.

In our job searches we can lose Situational Awareness as we go from one job application to another and one networking session to another if we let them blur together.  We also can use Situational Awareness when we look at our large, diverse skill set and look for the best way to use this skill or that skill in the interim while we are making our transition between positions.  A proper application of Situational Awareness can keep our job transition on track.

In the forecast operations room there is a large monitor showing the synoptic or national scale conditions.  To help keep our Situational Awareness, we need to have our own virtual monitor, and we need to look up from our day-to-day tasks from time to time and find our bearings to keep our Situational Awareness.  It can take the form of a whiteboard, Microsoft Outlook scheduling program, or even a paper planning calendar and task list.  The tools keep us organized and keep us reviewing on everything we have done and what we still need to do in our job transition.

WDTB AWOC IC2 on Situational Awareness:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/awoc.html#CoreTrack

©2010 Charles Schoeneberger

About Chuck

Chuck has a background in Atmospheric Sciences and a degree from the University of North Dakota, Grand Forks. He has a background in operational forecasting producing products for transportation needs with the 511 system and Departments of Transportation in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana with Meridian Environmental Technology Inc. of Grand Forks, ND.  He is looking for new job opportunities in the operational forecasting realm, and he blogs for the Minneapolis StarTribune newspaper about statewide weather.  In addition, Chuck has a background in Geographic Information Systems and is also looking for ways to apply these skills towards weather outreach and communications.    He is a native of Minnesota, just outside the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area and enjoys all four seasons and the constantly changing conditions.

Minneapolis StarTribune Weather Watchers Blog:

http://www.startribune.com/weatherwatchers/chuckschoeneberger.html

University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, Atmospheric Sciences Department:

http://www.atmos.und.edu/Default.aspx

National Weather Service Warning Decision Training Branch:

http://wdtb.noaa.gov/

COMET at UCAR:

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/

Twin Cities Chapter of the American Meteorological Society:

http://twincitiesams.org/

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