Back in high school we were tasked with completing a “Senior Project”. This project was to be something that interested us and involved a research paper, hands on experience, and a presentation. I of course chose to shadow a local TV meteorologist, but my research paper that I wrote dealt with “Weather Myths”. I have taken pieces of that paper and integrated some “new” weather knowledge that I have attained over the past 6 years to address this common folklore…
Many weather myths are not explained in a scientific manner; however, they are based on events that occur constantly and appear to be generally valid. Weather myths usually are contained within the following general categories: the condition of atmosphere, appearance of the sky, movement of clouds, direction and velocity of the wind, and animal behavior. Before the invention of modern technology such as radar and satellites, meteorologists had to rely on theories such as weather beliefs and personal observations to make their forecasts. Weather folklore originated long ago as civilizations made observations of weather conditions, noticed a pattern, and came up with a myth to accompany it. Though many of these tales seem to be far fetched, many weather myths have been found to have true scientific support.
A myth common to the prediction of precipitation is “Red skies at morning, sailors take warning. Red sky at night, sailors delight”. This weather folklore has been around for many centuries. The red sky myth was first used in a Greek philosopher’s rules for weather, written 300 years before Christ and has appeared in many sources of literature from the Bible to Shakespeare. The extravagant colors one sees at sunset and sunrise are the yellow and orange light rays because they are not scattered by the atmosphere as they are passing through, and the moisture and dust in the atmosphere causes the sky to appear red. The explanation of the myth is that a dark red sky in the morning hours is a sign of clear skies to the east, thus the chances of another weather system arriving are decent. Conversely, a red sky at night is a sign of clear and colorful skies to the west, and given that the western sky is clear it is assumed that a weather system will not approach for at least one more day. This myth is especially consistent when referring to the weather on the east coast of the United States because the proverb is based on west-to-east movement of weather systems only in the mid-latitudes, and it does not apply to other parts of the globe.
Another very common myth used when predicting precipitation is the halo around the moon. “Ring around the moon, rain by noon. Ring around the sun, rain before night is done”. Unlike the red sky myth, the ring around the moon means that precipitation is most likely on its way. The ring around the moon is caused by high level cirrostratus clouds that contain ice crystals. As the light from the moon shines down on earth, a halo of the sun or moon is caused by the refraction of light by crystals in cirrus clouds. Upper level winds causes these high level cirrus clouds to move quickly ahead of an approaching system and can cause a halo around the moon. These high level clouds now are easily seen in satellite images streaming ahead of major storm systems. Often here in North Carolina, storms can be gathering in Texas, while the high cirrus clouds are reaching this area. In fact, this past winter I personally noticed some brilliant halos around the moon on mostly clear nights, and usually we received precipitation within a day or two.
Another myth that is common to predicting America’s climate is Groundhog Day. “If the ground hog sees its shadow on February 2nd, there will be 6 more weeks of winter. If it does not see its shadow then there will be an early spring”. Groundhog Day originated in Germany and still occurs in Pennsylvania because of the large numbers of Germans who settled there, following their migration to America. Every February 2nd, the groundhog used in Pennsylvania, named Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from his hole amidst a circle of TV cameras waiting to see what the weather will be like in the future. Groundhog Day is on February 2nd because February 2nd is midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox; so, technically, the groundhog is never completely wrong. However, the accuracy of the groundhog as measured over the past 100 years is one of inaccuracy. Scientifically, the backing behind the Groundhog Day myth is that when the sun shines brightly in winter, it does so in the midst of a very dry, cold, Arctic air mass-which would suggest prolonged wintry weather. So in theory the myth could prove to be true, but as the records have shown, the groundhog is not accurate in predicting the future of the weather. When it comes to its use in predicting the weather, Groundhog Day is all in fun.
In conjunction with the groundhog, many other animals are used as a source of weather prediction. Animals use their instincts to recognize that the weather is changing and travel to a warmer or safer place. For example, when birds fly south, it signals the coming of cooler weather; likewise, when they return, it is an indication of milder weather on the horizon. Many animals such as squirrels and other mammals simply spend the fall days gathering food for a winter hibernation time. So it is a good rule of thumb that when squirrels are gathering nuts and birds are squirming around gathering seeds and other food, it usually signals that winter is approaching soon. Another very popular weather myth that concerns animals involves cows. It is said that, “If cows lie down and refuse to go to pasture, you can expect a storm to blow up soon”. This tale has been used for a long time by farmers and rural communities, and I have even noticed it driving around while at home for the summers. The reason that this myth is assumed to be true is because “cows sense the moisture in the air and are making sure they have somewhere dry to lie down”. Basic animal instincts, though they are nothing out of the ordinary to the way the animal lives, give humans a good sense of the type of weather that can be expected.
A force of nature which is the center of many weather myths is lightning. Since the time of the Greeks, lightning has often been seen as a powerful force and it has been worshiped as a god by many civilizations. Also, according to early civilizations, lightning was considered a weapon which the gods used to punish humans. One of the most common myths that people hear as they grow up is, “Lightning never strikes the same place twice”. This assumption could not be more wrong. Lightning can and frequently does strike the same place twice. For example, during just one thunderstorm, the Empire State Building can be struck by lightning numerous times. Although the Empire State Building is tall, lightning can also strike other objects many times. This completely false myth about lightning came about because lightning is so erratic and hard to predict that people assumed that it was impossible that it could strike the same place twice. The world record for most lightning strikes to a human is seven, which again disproves the myth completely.
Over the centuries, these myths have been useful in predicting the weather. Simply by paying attention to the surroundings and the atmosphere one can sometimes accurately foretell the weather for the next few days. With the increase in modern technology, such as radar, satellites, and weather stations set up around the globe, weather myths are being quickly replaced with accepted scientific methods that are more consistently accurate. While these myths can be applied to every day forecasting, simply paying attention to wind direction, barometric trends, and the presence or absence of thickening clouds are a much better indicator of future weather events. Some myths, such as the red sky myth, have withstood the test of time and still remain true and very reliable when making a weather prediction. Knowing and using these centuries old weather proverbs can be helpful for ordinary people who are trying to watch the skies, plan outdoor activities, or how to dress the next day. Even in this age of modern technology, the myths about the weather can have a practical application every day.
Richard Barnhill
About Richard: Richard is a native of Greenville, NC where he experienced firsthand the destruction of Hurricane Floyd, the storm that pretty much sealed his career choice. He received his BS in Meteorology from North Carolina State University in 2008 and is currently working on a MA in Geography at East Carolina University. In undergrad his research was concentrated using WRF output to develop an icing accumulation algorithm; however, in graduate school his work is concentrated on using the TRMM satellite to better understand the regional differences in convection at monsoon onset to determine the mechanisms of onset and improve its predictability. He hopes one day to work in a field that tries to bridge the society and meteorology gap so that there is better communication between the two. Go Red Sox!
rpbarnhi@gmail.com
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